Archiv der Kategorie: compulsory reading

my best and favorite posts on almost a diary.

almost a diary, compulsory reading

I am getting old(er). Christmas shopping 2002.

Today I did the bulk of my Christmas shopping and discovered three interesting things.

Firstly, age compression, big time: when did it become fashionable among 13 year old guys to be knowledgeable about Eau de Toilettes? I was slightly stunned while listening to three youngsters’ conversation about the intricacies of three different types of Jil Sander Eau de Toilette. Not that I mind EdTs. That is, these days.

When I was thirteen, my friends and I were interested in fighter jets, racing cars, and handling advice for the first hangover – not in the amount of alcohol in EdTs. We eventually all learned to give our appearance the finishing touches (well, in our opinion…) by applying olfactory aids. But that was not until a few years later. And I did not learn more about the inner workings of EdTs until I did a luxury industry case study in Business School. I am confused. We got more sophisticated in the olfactory sense because girls told us to (well, they never actually told us to, that would have made things a lot easier…). So I can’t help but wonder – is the episode also telling me something about today’s pre-teen girls’ behavior? Or have guys changed so much without being obliged to by young Lysistrata?

Secondly, there are still some guys who really don’t know how to improve their appearance using olfactory aids. While listening to the three kids, some 45 year old guy grabbed one of the test flacons and quasi-emptied it over his head and coat. And I am not kidding. I wonder what the boys thought of that ;-).

Thirdly, baggy trousers that are literally so baggy they sweep the streets. The ones I saw today were soaked in water (it was raining) up to their proprietors calfs. I think that local governments have not yet realised how much public cleaning costs can be privatised to these fashion victim’s families, and will be, moreover, (more or less) willingly borne by their parents to avoid noisy fights…

In other news, I actually managed to get most of my presents today. But that’s not too difficult. I am none of the people who spend months figuring out the perfect present. Most of the people I am giving presents to already have most of the stuff I believe they could possibly want (well, within reasonable German-definition-upper-middle- class-limits… I believe, most would not mind a free Porsche.)

So giving presents is theoretcially complicated. I realise I am generalising a bit, but I think there are usually roughly two and half alternatives when it comes to buying Christmas presents. Either you’re giving something that is admired on the coffee table during Christmas and then stuffed into a cardbord box on the attic on December 30th. Or you’re giving something not quite as exciting but with a longer lasting appeal. Most of the times I tend to stick with the second alternative and give books which, if nothing else, are a good pass-time and sophisticated sedative during the sudden urges to decapitate a distant aunt on Boxing Day for her remarks about the beautiful socks she gave us, or in case the tv programme does again become all too dreadful.

The last semi-alternative is the theoretical possibility of the above mentioned perfect present – something that clearly exhibits that one knows enough about a person to figure out her/his underlying interests, needs or emotions and devoted enough time on brainstorming and then getting or creating this perfect, most of the times material, incarnation thereof. But that’s probably as likely to happen as winning a million in a lottery.

Do I need to mention that I don’t participate in lotteries?

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compulsory reading, oddly enough

A new kind of suicide.
Between two consenting adults.

When I briefly mentioned the cannibalism case revealed by German police in Rotenburg, near Frankfurt, yesterday, I had just heard about it. Normally, I’d say there’s not much more to it than I wrote yesterday. It obviously goes without saying that it is unbelievably sad that things like cannibalism keep occuring on this planet. Most of us would prefer to live on one in which they wouldn’t. But we can’t choose yet. So we have to cope.

Is this the end of the story? Not quite. However tragic, there is probably more to this latest case than a life sentence for the perpetrator and some disbelieving head shaking for the rest of us. It’s about a new kind of suicide, the social ‘contract’, and, at a slightly more abstract level, about transaction costs.

It was quite interesting to see all the psychological experts interviewed on tv at loss of words. Not about the perpetrator’s behavior, which, although fortunately rare, happens frequently enough for psychologists and others to have given it some thought and at least be able to come up with wishy-washy sexual, social or genetic explanations – but they do not have the slightest idea why someone would agree to be killed and be eaten afterwards, as the victim, a gay 41 or 42 year old man from Berlin explicitly did.

Let’s recapitulate: There was a guy who seriously repeatedly posted classified ads on the internet looking for people wishing to be killed and eaten. According to “The Scotsman’s” English coverage of the story, he used the following words (well, in German, I suppose) “Seeking young, well-built 18- to 30-year-old for slaughter”.

And while the crime in all likelihood happened only once, five additional suicide candidates seem to have stood in line. Before being killed, cut to pieces and being eaten or deep fried, the victim agreed to have his penis cut off, which was then cooked and at least tasted by both men – on camera.

While the deed technically qualifies for first degree murder, according to the local prosecutor, I wonder what the legal repercussions of the victim’s taped consent to be killed will be. I suppose, some so far neglected or even undiscovered issues will now attract attention, eg the already questioned human free will (aka real consent), our social norms and abnormal, apparently suicidal sexuality.

Clearly, not everything that goes on between two consenting adults in a bedroom (or basement) should be treated as their own business. But in a society in which mutual consent between adults is de facto the only enforced and probably enforceable sexual convention, I can’t help but wonder what should not be regarded as such? And, more importantly, why – based on which principle?

I don’t know. But I fear these questions will have to be answered more precisely rather sooner than later.

Before the internet, it was probably a lot harder to find like-minded partners for perverse activities such as the one discovered yesterday. But on the web, self-selection processes have become a lot cheaper. If some consensual abnormal transactions have been barred by prohibitive transaction costs (too costly to find a partner) in the non-digital world, reduced transaction costs will by definition lead to an increase of these transactions.

Thus, with transaction costs close to zero (in some ways), we might be forced to witness more and more consensual but clearly abnormal behavior in the future. But let’s hope I’m wrong.

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compulsory reading

Welcome to Berlusconia!

When I recently read a study examining the extent to which Turkey is currently in compliance with the Kopenhagen criteria, allegedly necessary for membership in the EU, the conclusion was that the country is not a liberal democracy yet, but it has made significant progress. Some people there, however, seem to think that the rule of law is not actually as important as European politicians seem to emphasize, given recent developments in the European core. And while not naming any country, it is rather obvious what they have in mind.

Tonight I watched yet another shocking documentary on arte.tv. They devote this entire evening to discuss what Italy’s prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s political intentions are beyond deforming the country’s legal system so he can’t actually be jailed for doing what he did to become what he became. The name of the documentary is rightly ambigous: “Berlusconi’s Italy”. Suddenly it seems that many would prefer his government to be only about subordinating the public interest to (often his own) personal/corporate interests.

According to the documentary, songs praising the military successes of fascist black-shirts and the Duce are again being performed live on Berlusconi-controlled television channels – and it was no documentary. I did not recognise the channel logo, so don’t know if it happened on public or private tv. But that distinction seems to lose relevance in the Italian case anyway, as Mr Berlusconi owns most private tv stations and politically controls the public ones now, too). A live performance of something like the “Horst Wessel Lied” (a fascist hymn) on national German tv would clearly cause a national crisis up here. But in Berlusconia, there seem to be less and less screens available to those critical of the Prime Minister and his government.

Let’s hope that Berlusconi’s second reign will turn out to be only one of those many unhappy episodes of post WW2 Italian political life. Let’s hope he won’t be able to damage the country for good. Let’s hope I won’t have to ask my Italian friends one day if they are ok with me starting to actually propagate the use of “Bella Berlusconia”…

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compulsory reading, German Politics

Why ’68 was so important for Germany.

Not a lot of you will have read Tierry Jonquet’s novel “Rouge. C’est la vie”. It wasn’t a bestseller. It’s a generational novel about love and life of two teenagers in Paris during the infamous 1968 revolts on Boulevard St. Germain, which is exactly where I read it in the Summer of 1998. 30 years later, in a different world. No doubt, Paris saw the most violent expressions of social unrest in ’68. But I contend that in most respects, ’68 was far more important for Germany than for France or any other Western country.

These days, most people over here tend to concentrate on the incentive distorting economic policies implemented in this country during the last 30 years when they talk about the consequences of ’68. And it’s fair enough to say that ’68 was followed by a general shift to the (economic) left in the German party system that led, in combination with the experience of rapid economic growth during the 1950s and ’60s and macroeconomic mismanagement during the oil crises of the 1970s, to a pervasive, somewhat problematic incentive structure in this country. But that’s not the entire story about ’68. And it is plainly unfair not to mention the rest of it – because the rest is much more important than the economic mess which my generation will have to clean up now.

I was born in 1975, so I don’t have any personal memories of what this country was like before 1968. But it must have been a different county. Sometimes people say that 1945 made the difference. And yes, it clearly was 1945 that made the difference – but it did not make that difference in 1945. It happened in 1968. One generation later.

To those who only know contemporary Germany, the image painted by Martha Gellhorn’s brilliant article Is There A New Germany(from the February 1964 issue of the Atlantic), will probably seem slightly bizarre. Sometimes I find it hard to believe how much things have changed since then. There might not have been a new Germany in 1964. But it was clearly about to hatch out. And it did.

In 1968. Let’s not forget about that.

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compulsory reading

Turkey’s EU membership? Put it off. Put it on.

The political debate on Turkey’s membership is likely going to be put off again. Given the Franco-German agreement, next weeks EU summit will probably announce a revision of Turkey’s reform effort in 2004. Should the result be positive, membership negotiations could begin in 2005.

I am plainly impressed by the result of the recent diplomatic success. It’s hardly imaginable without silent – but effective – US background management. The US effort has obviously become a lot easier following the transatlantic repercussions produced by Schröder’s “No war in Iraq” campaign. Tying up Turkey with Europe is old US goal and a good reason for the US administration to keep up some pressure on Germany – which usually wasn’t too supportive of the idea of Turkish membership for a lot of reasons. The nee Turkish government’s successes should thus also be seen in the light of the US presenting Schröder with the diplomatic bill.

But it seems there’s more to the Turkish question now than there was ever before. As opposed to the formal political debate which will be adjourned next week it seems a debate about the “Europeaness” of Turkey is beginning all over Europe. This week’s Economist’s editorial is but one indicator. We’ll see if there will be less of that debate once the formal question has been dealt with. My guess is – short term, yes. Medium term, no.

Let’s not be fooled. The question of Turkish membership is probably the most crucial decision the EU has to take since the Single Eurpean Act in 1986. Not simply for geographical reasons. Giscard d’Estaing, president of the European Constitutional Convention, said a month or so ago, that Turkish membership would mean “the end of the European Union”. Well, that might be slightly exaggerated, but I guess what d’Estaing wanted to say was something else anyway and he is certainly right there : Turkish membership will mean the end of the European Union the way we know it.

The question of European finalities will have to be restated in new ways. But that might even be a good thing. I don’t agree with the Economist’s awkward British attitude towards looser integration, but they are clearly pointing out an increasingly true fact about Europe. The more people, the more governments, the more ideas about where European institutional cooperation should headed:

“It is hard to answer that question without deciding what the ultimate purpose of the EU is. But here there is no consensus: the habit of the EU has been to invent itself as it goes along. Its shape and purpose are evolving. It is plainly becoming a hybrid: much more than just a free-trade area but much less than a superstate. For many of its members, not just for those awkward Britons but also for prickly newcomers such as the 40m Poles, a headlong drive towards political and even military integration will be resisted. […] As for Russia, or Morocco, why should geography, or religion, dictate who might join? If the European idea is to inspire, it ought to be about values, not maps or tribes. Countries that can subscribe to the core values of democracy and freedom should be eligible as candidates, be they Slavs or Muslims, and no matter how far they are in miles from Paris or Berlin.”

Very true. But as the last sentence indicates, political cooperation is not only about values. And it is no wonder the Britsh Economist would like to see the looser kind of integration which is the likely outcome of increased European heterogeneity. It follows the (generalised) British idea of Europe and no longer the one of the EU’s (dare I say it? federal!) founders.

“The Economist would prefer this looser sort of Europe, perhaps comprising overlapping inner clubs of those who wish to integrate more tightly.”

I fear history is going to repeat itself. A larger European Union (or however the larger thing will be called) with closer cooperation around the classic core (probably without Italy in the beginning. The first proposal for a core Europe, the now famous “Schäuble-Lamers-paper” from 1994 will become very popular in the near future, I suppose. The renewed Franco-German cooperation is likely as much a result of the perceived widening gap between Europe and the (Republican) US administration as an understanding of this deeper European dynamic.
And the Brits will be out again – until they will realise they are missing something. Churchill’s three spheres of British influence (US, Commonwealth, Europe) may have shifted in salience and to some extent overlap these days. But they still exist – in the form of British ambivalence towards the Continent.

If history is giong to repeat itself, let’s hope it’s gooing to be a farce, not a tragedy. It won’t all be about Turkey. But without Turkey, the European heterogeneity would be a lot easier to handle. We’re approaching interesting times.

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compulsory reading, intellectual property rights, music industry

They’ll fuck up the pricing for at least five years!

This article in the Economist – about virtual Christman shopping and AOL TimeWarner’s hopes to get their by creating a new e-commerce platform – prompts me to tell you three things:

Firstly, my spacebar justbroke for no obvious reason (but being sick of being hit several thousand times a day).

Secondly, AOLTW is a tad bit late to establish a general shopping platform. It will cost them a fortune to get the critical mass anytime soon which limits their ability to lower prices as the competitors can and do (and is important especially in these economically troublesome days). This leads me to the last� – only somewhat related point:

Thirdly, I wanted to let you know the one quote that will make you relax about everything digital-good-commerce-profitbility related for at least three years to come. It is from some now likely fired e-record-company executive who mentioned back in 1999 that Ecommerce companies (especially those companies trading digital goods) “… will fuck up the pricing for at least five years.” Very true. But they haven’t quite understood yet that negotiating tougher measures on Capitol Hill and its equivalents, coming up with yet more international regulation will not solve the fundamental problem of creating value for the customer. Scientifically put, you can find the argument in this article from ! 1988 –

Pethig, Rüdiger, Copyright and copying costs, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics/Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 144 (1988), 462-495

The same point has been made a little more eloquently by some Microsoft employees who last week published this paper. Here’s a useful quote:

Consider an MP3 file sold on a web site: this costs money, but the purchased object is as useful as a version acquired from the darknet. However, a securely DRM [aka Digital-Rights-Management -the system in your computer that is supposed to stop you from copying from a CD, for ecample] wrapped song is strictly less attractive: although the industry is striving for flexible licensing rules, customers will be restricted in their actions if the system is to provide meaningful security. This means that a vendor will probably make more money by selling unprotected objects than protected objects.

Interesting, isn’t it? Well, legality can increase utility for a customer. Virus-proof downloading can do the same. A whole series of other stuff can, too. There’s a lot of variables to be worked on.

But as long as the relevant people don’t understand that they need to make buying a download more valuable than getting it at the p2p-service of the day, as long as they don’t understand that hackers are negotiating the prices for the rest of the digital community, the will continue to fuck up their pricing.

That record company executive said five years backin 1999. Actually, I think he was an optimist.

But time will tell.

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compulsory reading, intellectual property rights, music industry

Thomas Stein, President of BMG Europe:
Downloading copyrighted mp3 files for private purposes is legal in Germany

For all those not familiar with German copyright law, the codified German equivalent of the US principle of “fair use” of copyrighted material is §53 UrhG. In general the clause states that copies (in this case of songs) for personal use are legal. Standing jurisdiction upholds the right of everyone to give away 7 copies of, say, a CD (no idea how they arrived at that number – maybe that was a statistic average number people involved in close knit interaction at the time the law was challenged in court decades ago).

That is absolutely legal in Germany, as long as you don’t take money from your friends. The soon to be implemented European directive on digital age copyright makes things a lot more complicated, but at least tries to keep that fundamental right in the legislation – personal non profit copies will generally remain legal (then Europewide).

No one has ever disputed that offering ripped mp3 files through a file sharing service is an infringement of copyrights. The person offering has no license to do so and the anonymity and amount of downloads of p2p services basically does not favour arguments based on the “copy to friends”-provision.

But downloading is a bit trickier. Lawyers were arguing back and forth to come a conclusion wether it would matter for a download to be covered by the protection of §53 UrhG if the copy obtained by the person downloading has been legally licensed for distribution or if the person downloading would have acted in bad faith on the presumption that was not. The record industry’s position was always that a legally licensed original was necessary for the private copy privilege. That is – until last thursday, I suppose. I was so shocked by the statement that I almost forgot to mention it:

The President of BMG Europe, Thomas M. Stein, was a guest at Johannes B. Kerner’s daily talkshow because he’s a member of the Jury of the currently broadcast German version of “American Idol”. And after admitting that he could have never become a “German Idol” due to his bad voice he simply let it slip out like the most natural thing in the world. Downloading mp3s is legal in Germany, according to Thomas Stein, CEO of BMG Europe.

Now I don’t know if that is a consequence of a court ruling or of a revised industry policy in light of the soon to be implemented EU directive or legally correct (to make that necessary disclaimer). But it certainly is a bold statement for a record company executive.

Update

the video file in question is no longer available

This is a video file of Mr Stein’s appearance on the show. You will find the statement I am talking at about 12′ 08” – the host asks – “downloading mp3 files is illegal?” to which Mr. Stein replies “not if you do it only for private purposes…”. Those of you speaking German, please check, as I still don’t believe what I heard.

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compulsory reading

Suicide terrorism. It’s all about grapes.

This is one of the best scientific insights I have read about this year. And if it weren’t for all the innocent victims of suicide terrorists, it would be really funny, in some sense.

Well, I suppose that most of us have heard about the infamous parts of the Koran in which those dying in Jihad are promised that they would instantly go to Paradise where they would then be pampered by 70 big eyed (eternal!) virgins (“huris”) to which they will be married. Given the rigid religious and sexual customs and otherwise poor living conditions in a lot of muslim countries these days, I suppose that the suggestion of such a sensual adventure in heaven will indeed have a certain seductive power for mostly uneducated and indoctrinated youngsters. The fact that the Koran is taken literally by most Muslims does add even more salience. That’s all common knowledge. Well…

Today, I read a review in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of a new book by a German Islam researcher called Christoph Luxenberg (pseudonym, to avoid a Fatwa) who suggests some linguistic interpretations: His book is called “The syro-aramaean interpretation of Koran. A contribution to the decryption of the language of the Koran“.

The reviwer, Wolfgang G. Lerch, suggests that Luxenberg indeed succeeded to make new sense of a lot of Sures by starting from the syro-aramaean etymological roots of Arabic, which, according to the article, was not a fully developed language at the time the Koran was written.

Translations are always a great way to get rid of meaning. As long as everyone is willing to accept that fact and tries to mitigate the consequences by analysing the0 context the problem can possibly be alleviated. But for a lot of Muslims in many islamist countries, and especially their more knowledgeable leaders, interpreting the Koran is religiously inacceptable (as it would likely begin to 0undermine conservative leadership structures and their justification.) The problem is, that we all have to bear the consequences of their unwillingness.

Since, as Mr Luxenberg shows, if correct, it’s not all about girls, but all about grapes. In syro-aramaean “hur” means “white grapes”. And following the syro-aramaean interpretation, the Koran says that in Paradise there’s a lot of them. Good food for hungry dead warriors. But over time, the syro-aramaean roots appear to have been forgotten about (or that was politically engineered), and thus the virgin “huris” became the uncontested way to read the Koran.

Too bad for all of us, for I don’t think there would be as many eager young guys with an overload of testosterone blowing themselves up for grapes. I am very interested in the islamic public’s reception of this interpretation.

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compulsory reading

Stuck in the middle.

It’s a shame so few people outside the busines community have heard of Michael Porter and his concept of strategic analysis of business environments.

Last year, around this time, Germany was in shock. Not because of some strange election outcome or because I had moved back here but because of the poor results German students had obtained in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment. After the initial shock had faded a little, the results again surged to public prominence as one of the crucial issues in the elections last September. So after the elections are finally over, one would hope some people would start to concentrate on facts rather than on words. But the OECD is reckless.

Today it published yet another report thus time bashing the German educational landscape for its alleged financial inadequacy and inefficiency. Browsing through the executive summary of the results (in German), I had to realise that the report appears to based to a large extent on the older PISA data. The information concerning the comparatively small amount of money spent on tertiary education is also hardly new.

So why this entry? And why would I mention a professor of business strategy while talking about educational policy, a field in which, certainly in the German case, decision making can, if at all, be described as a garbage can process.

Well, it’s because this new report compelled me to share my understanding of the PISA results and because Prof. Porter has come up the concept of U-curve rentabiliy on investment. He is, of course, referring to a U-shaped relation between two generic business strategies that could lead to a favorable strategic position in the competitive environment and their return on investment – leadership in either cost and volume or in quality and price. Companies which are not successful in pursuing either of these strategies are, according to M. Porter, stuck in the middle and will have to accept a lower return on investment.

Now I know that it might seem a little far-fetched to some, but I contend that Germany is currently stuck in the middle. Not because the German polity can not decide between mass market or quality production, of course. But I believe firmly that many of the current problems in Germany have arisen because of a failure two choose between two, equally successful, but socially opposed ways of organising the educational environment. I will describe those two alternatives as “Scandinavian” on the one hand, and “Japanese” on the other, the first being extremelly socially open, market oriented (please note that I use the term market here to denote the inclusion of transactions in the social division of labour) and one rather closed, hierarchical, family oriented. Again, both models seem to be successful. But those who can’t decide between them aren’t.

Now, looking at Germany, we see a somewhat divided country. The more “Scandinavian” oriented Northern regions and the more “Japanese”-style educational (and social) systems of the South. But in fact, both are in-between.

Well, as the divison of labour is increasing the I believe that this country’s long term shift to the Scandinavian model will continue. That theory however, does not bode well for Bavaria, which features the most Japanese-style educational system in Germany and is still the national number one. But it offers a ray of hope for those regions which currently fare less well but are already somewhat further “North”.

We’ll see.

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almost a diary, compulsory reading, oddly enough

The 16 most important events in world history.

Last week, while strolling down Les Champs Elysées, I entered the Virgin bookstore to have a look at recent French publications. I also wanted to have a look at the (in)famous French bestseller spreading the conspiracy theory that the Pentagon was not in fact attached by a plane. While that seemed to be as boring as expected, another one attracted my attention – a book that claimed to have identified the 16 most important events in world history: Les 16 majeures de l’Histoire : Les dates qui ont changé le monde by Pierre Miquel.

I think identifying the 16 most important events in world history would certainly be an achievement. I just doubt it is possible. And just by looking at the back of the book it became clear to me that this was just another attempt to benefit from the post 9/11 histeria: Miquel puts 9/11/2001 on par with the birth of Jesus Christ.

I think that – while I agree that nothing is quite as it was before 9/11 and it certainly was some sort of cataclysmic event for my generation – history’s verdict on the importance of the attack won’t be available for another few decades.

And one more thing – Paul Krugman, Princeton economist and NYTimes columnist – wrote back in February that, in his opinion, in ten years the Enron affair and its consequences for corporate governance in the US will be considered to have been far more important than the terrorist attacks. Now Miquel certainly does not appear to think that Enron is that important. And most people would probably agree that it will never be an event as important as the birth of Christ.

A friend of mine put the whole “nothing is quite as before” discourse in a very funny caricature, which you find below. The German caption reads: “… and even though nothing was as it was before September, 11th, Mr. Killian again had to run to catch the tube this morning…”. Quite right.

nothing as before

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