Allgemein

Unilateralisten unter sich.

Also, mal ehrlich. Wie sich die Hamas-Führung ï¿½ber den auf den wahrscheinlichen Kadima-Wahlsieg möglicherweise folgenden fortschreitenden israelischen Unilateralismus in der Frage des Siedlungsrückbaus in der Westbank aufregen kann, ist mir nicht so ganz begreiflich – schlieï¿½lich propagieren sie selbst, zumindest offiziell, mit der Abschaffung des Staates Israel eine eher einseitig orientiere Grenzziehung…

“Ihr Sieg symbolisiert die Fortsetzung der Ungerechtigkeit gegenï¿½ber dem palästinensischen Volk, da sie der unilateralen Politik von Ariel Sharon verpflichtet ist.” (Quelle: Hamas: Kadima “die schlimme Partei in Israel” – derStandard.at

oddly enough, US Politics

Collective Intelligence and the smoking gun

It seems the days of secrecy as state of the art strategy are over. Not that I’d think the US government would release anything they know to be important on the web, but the fact that they’re releasing Iraqi official documents of which they largely don’t know the content is probably rather illustrative of the problems intelligence agencies have with respect to uncovering Arabic secrets.

Iraq papers go on Web; bloggers go all out – Americas – International Herald Tribune

Under pressure from congressional Republicans, the director of national intelligence has begun a yearlong process of posting on the Web 48,000 boxes of Arabic-language Iraqi documents captured by U.S. troops. Less than two weeks into the project, and with only 600 out of possibly a million documents and video and audio files posted, some conservative bloggers are already asserting that the material undermines the official view.

Fußball, Sport

Placebo Heimvorteil

Ob das wohl Brasilien beeindrucken wird? Der Heimvorteil ist eine statistische Realität – und trotzdem soll er ein Placebo sein. Da stellt sich doch die Frage, ob die vom “Stern” betriebene pschologische Aufklärung angesichts solcher Thesen nicht eigentlich Landesverrat ist?

“Es gibt den Heimvorteil”, sagt der Münsteraner Sportpsychologe Bernd Strauß, der zu dem Thema habilitiert hat. ‘Aber er findet im Spieler selbst statt.’

…

‘Statt höhere Mächte anzurufen, muss der Heimvorteil erarbeitet werden.’ Er existiere nur, wenn die Spieler Selbstvertrauen hätten und an den Vorteil im heimischen Stadion glaubten. ‘Da muss ein Teamspirit erarbeitet werden und die Spieler müssen sich immunisieren gegen den öffentlichen Druck’, rät Strauß.”

almost a diary

Das ist Kultur!

Wie wir ja alle wissen, wird die Welt im Sommer bei Freunden zu Gast sein. Aber wie das eben so ist, wenn man unterschiedliche Freundeskreise zusammenführt, da kann es schnell mal zu kulturellen Verständigungsschwierigkeiten kommen.

Lyssa über so manches, was man bzgl. der Fußball-Weltmeisterschaft von polnischen Taxifahrern lernen kann:

“Ich verstehe nicht diese Engländer und ihre komische Königin. Sie sind drei Mal am Tag betrunken, mindestens. Also die Leute, nicht die Königin. Wenn sie Urlaub haben, sie sind ganzen Tag betrunken, immerzu. Wir Polen sind anders. Wir sind nur einmal am Tag betrunken. Abends. Auch im Urlaub. Wir trinken viel, aber nur abends. Und wenn wir kotzen, dann zuhause und in Eimer oder in Garten. Aber in eigenen Garten, nicht in fremdes Taxi. Das ist Kultur.”

Iraq

Now really?

Downing Street Memo follow up in the IHT –

“Our diplomatic strategy had to be arranged around the military planning,” David Manning, Blair’s chief foreign policy adviser at the time, wrote in the memo that summarized the discussion between Bush, Blair and six of their top aides.”

And in case anyone is surprised why there are conspiracy theories…

“The memo also shows that the president and the prime minister acknowledged that no unconventional weapons had been found inside Iraq. Faced with the possibility of not finding any before the planned invasion, Bush talked about several ways to provoke a confrontation, including a proposal to paint a United States surveillance plane in the colors of the United Nations in hopes of drawing fire, or assassinating Hussein.”

I seriously wonder what it feels like to be in such a meeting… did they, at any point, feel at least a little of the weight of the world on their shoulders? Or was it really just another “Patriot Game”. Whatever you think of Michael Moore, he was right about asking one question – why did Blair go along with this?

I’ve always favoured an explanation invoking the fundamental British post WW2 foreign policy fallacy – Churchill’s three sphere’s of interest. Well, it may not have been a fallay back in Churchill’s days, but the concept of building a global foreign policy strategy based on the idea of the US wanting a special relationship with the UK should have been discredited after the Suez crisis, or, latest, after Kennedy told Macmillan to take Britain into the EEC or the US would have a special relationship with, hey, Germany.

But still, to this day, against more than 50 years of evidence, the British foreign policy establishment seems to believe that linguistic and superficial cultural affiliation will ensure that the US listen to British advice on how to run the world.

Bush was set on path to war, memo by British adviser says – Europe – International Herald Tribune

German Politics

Our willingness to pay.

The NYT’s Robert Frank has written an important case study about the value of society wide risk sharing. About the weighing of cost and benefit, or rather, benefit and profit in a matter of costly life prolonging medicine or certain immediate death.

Everyone should read it. Certainly everyone interested in politics should read it. And if there’s anyone engaged in European health politics who has not read this, he shall not be entitled to speak until after he has read this. I read it, and I feel terrible. But that’s no excuse not to read it – it’s the reason. It’s also the reason why I’m writing this post.

I’m sure you, my gentle readers, remember the NRA’s PR line “guns don’t kill people, people do”. It’s true. It all depends how they are dealt with and who deals with them. The same is true for any system of social coordination, including, in this case, markets. Markets are a marvel. Markets themselves don’t kill people. People do. Sometimes with the help of a gun, sometimes with the help of a market. But don’t blame the market. Blame the societies who were unable to act collectively to prevent people from using it as a weapon.

At the NYT you have to pay tor read, but thanks to a commenter at Brad DeLong’s, large parts of the article are available for free.

German Politics

Please, no changes.

Yesterday, the IHT’s Judy Dempsey was in town to tell you half the story about the effects that next Sunday’s regional elections could have on German national politics. Apparently she talked to the FDP’s vice chairman and former state minister of economics and viniculture, Rainer Brüderle, who has apparently told her that that “the FDP hopes the elections will renew its faded luster” – and so a headline was born.

Of course, that’s only half the story. Not even the FDP, a party still coming to terms with a changed German party system in which it is apparently possible for the FDP not to be part of a governing coalition three times in a row, has much to gain in this election.

Actually, apart from those running in the elections, almost everyone would prefer they would not have to take place now. Right now, the grand coalition in Berlin is working rather smoothly. Hardly anyone would want to see the SPD going crazy if they lost their last state premier in the “old states”. The FDP’s PR people might like the limelight they would get in such a situation – the party would be forced in to a coalition debate, as it has publicly pledged to continue the current coalition – but since that would certainly not mean another round of early federal elections, just a less effective government, there’s no real point to hope for any kind of change. And very likely there won’t be any –

Opinion polls give Beck 43 percent and the Free Democrats 7 percent.

One big concern is the possible spoiler role of the Left Party, an amalgam of reformed communists from eastern Germany and trade unionists who quit the Social Democratic Party last year claiming it had become too centrist.

True. But everyone except for Christoph Böhr, the CDU’s candidate for state premier is hoping they won’t spoil the party. Böhr, of course, has been in a rather uncofortable situation given that Angela Merkel would certainly prefer him to loose the election despite having to campaign for him.

Politics is a strange game sometimes.

So keep that in mind when reading Ms Dempsey’s piece over at the IHT’s website.

Party hopes Germany’s vote renews faded luster – Europe – International Herald Tribune

photoblogging

Morning in Mainz

Haven’t had an English post for almost a week. OK, sure, there were times when I did not update almost a diary for almost a month. But still, given the astonishing amount of German posts that I published this week, I felt an English one was overdue. So here it is.

It’s Morning in Mainz. And thanks to flickr.com I can tell you that Bronko was there with his camera when the sun rose. Thanks to him for this great picture.

German Politics

On Brand.

Es ist beeindruckend, wie sehr dieses Plakat der Grünen “on brand” ist – der der FDP und der eigenen – zumindest typographisch und von der Farbgebung her.

Allerdings bin ich mir genau aus diesem Grund nicht sicher, inwieweit es bei einem schnellen Blick nicht als FDP Plakat gewertet werden kann, mit einem “verschandelnden” Grünen-Aufkleber darauf.

Bliebe die Frage, wie die Wähler mit dem Eindruck eines solchen eher negativen Wahlkampfverhaltens umgingen. Es wäre daher interessant zu wissen, ob für dieses Motiv irgendwelche Marktforschung betrieben wurde.

German Politics

Arbeitslose Frühaufsteher, verschlafene Studenten

Der frühe Wahlkï¿½mpfer fï¿½ngt die Stimmen, wird sich das Bï¿½ro von Herrn Schreiner wohl gedacht haben – oder aber, daï¿½ die (generell, wenn auch nicht unbedingt in seinem Wahlkreis) zunehmende Arbeitslosigkeit Wï¿½hler dafï¿½r interessieren kï¿½nnte, sich wegen des angebotenen Frï¿½hstï¿½cks schon ab 7:30 Uhr an einem Donnerstag Morgen mit dem Thema Denkmalschutz auseinander zu setzen. Nominell zumindest.

Hï¿½tte er die Veranstaltung erst am morgigen Freitag durchgefï¿½hrt, wï¿½hren seinen Frï¿½haufstehern vermutlich die letzten ï¿½berlebenden der Jungwï¿½hler-Wahlkampfveranstaltung der Konkurrenz von der SPD in einem Club ganz in der Nï¿½he ï¿½ber den Weg gelaufen. Da wird nï¿½mlich seit 22 Uhr am heutigen Abend diskutiert – oder – wohl eher nicht.

Auch hier gilt: Die zunehmende gesellschaftliche Fragmentierung wird immer sichtbarer. Abstimmtechnisch betrachtet ist Schreiners Strategie dabei wohl cleverer – ob die feiernden Jungwï¿½hler am Sonntag wohl vor 18 Uhr zum Abstimmen kommen? Vielleicht sollte man sich bei der SPD eher fï¿½r die Abschaffung des “Urnenschlieï¿½gesetzes” einsetzen, als ergebnisschï¿½digendes Feiern auch noch zu unterstï¿½tzen…