Archiv der Kategorie: politics

compulsory reading, Iraq, oddly enough, US Politics

The Psychology Of WMDs

Salon.com’s Louise Witt is wondering why America is in collective denial that [someone in] the Bush administration knowingly “sexed up” the WMD charges against Saddam Hussein, as the administration is now admitting itself –

“[f]inally, on Monday, the White House admitted the president relied on inaccurate, incomplete information for that crucial passage of his State of the Union address.” [this is referring to the President’s claim that Iraq was about to aquire radioactive material from Niger]

She asks why lying is perceived as bad in some cases – and she uses the obvious Clinton impeachment example – while most people will accept it without problems in other cases. She chooses an interesting and helpful angle to analyse this question: behavioral psychology, a scientific discipline that is predominantly occupied with exploring the limits of human information processing and decision making abilities. Obviously, she can only allude to some of the insights such a perspective has to offer for the problem at hand. But these allusions are well worth reading.

Here’s a part of Ms Witt’s article I found particularly interesting –

“When Gustave Gilbert, a psychologist who interviewed the Nuremberg prisoners, talked to Hermann Goering, the former leader of the Third Reich’s Luftwaffe, Goering volunteered that it was relatively easy to persuade a populace to go to war.

As quoted in Gilbert’s book “Nuremberg Diary,” Goering said: “It is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship.

Gilbert disagreed with Goering’s analysis. “There is one difference,” he answered. “In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.”

But Goering held his ground: “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

Of course, such a statement has to be read as carefully as possible. It certainly does not add any truth to the recently rather popular, strange comparison of George W. Bush and Adolf Hitler.

But it does indicate that even liberal democracies could be heading in a dangerous direction. Especially when fear is calling the shots in most people’s brains.

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German Politics, oddly enough

Berlusconi apologizes. Or Not.

From the Guardian. Berlusconi apologized to Gerhard Schroeder (who was not exactly offended by him, but had demanded a formal apology).

“Italy’s billionaire prime minister Silvio Berlusconi last night expressed regret for his Nazi jibe against a German MEP, in a bid to end a serious diplomatic stand-off between the two countries just as Italy takes over the European Union presidency. The German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, who had demanded a full and formal apology, told a news conference in Berlin: “He expressed regret for the choice of this expression and comparison. I explained to him that as far as I am concerned this ends the affair.”

And regarding the Italian tv coverage of Wednesday’s incident:

“In Italy, state television’s evening news programme TG1 dubbed over the prime minister’s voice as he delivered his offending “joke”. “TG1 shuts its ears and hides European gaffe,” said the left-leaning daily Repubblica. The chiefs of the three state television channels, which are all indirectly controlled by Mr Berlusconi, were called for questioning next week by a parliamentary broadcasting commission.”

Update: Silvio Berlusconie today not only stole my “Hogan’s Heroes” joke and used it in a press conference, he also stated that he did in fact not apologize to Gerhard Schroeder. I guess this is like when the US and China had to find a word that meant “apology” in Chinese and “regret” in English after that US spy-plane had to land in China following a collision with a chinese fighter aircraft sent to intercept the reconaissance operation, back in 2001. C’mon people, you just have to love diplomats for their never ending efforts to build bridges so politicians can have their cake, and eat it, too.

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German Politics, Germany

Way To Go: Germany On The Move

Sure, one has to be extremely careful when citing a sitting chancellor’s opinion that things are going well. But when Gerhard Schroeder opened today’s Bundestag debate by saying that “Germany is willing to change [economically], Germany is on the move” he is right.

It wasn’t his reform “Agenda 2010” in the sense that people think it contains the only possible measures to economically get this country back on track. They don’t know. And let’s face it, the government itself isn’t too sure about the specificities either.

What changed is the climate, the feeling that “this time, it’s for real”.

Suddenly, as I said about a month a ago, Germans seem to be willing to accept that the future is essentially unpredictable and that the governmentally created illusion that it were predictable was wrong all the time. Suddenly, the Jürgen Peters of this country are finding themselves on the wrong side of public opinion.

I don’t really know what caused the change in public opinion just now. But I am grateful that it finally did change.

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German Politics, media, oddly enough

Italian Press Review.

The Guardian has compiled and translated a nice collection of commentary from today’s Italian newspapers regarding Berlusconi’s loosing his cool. It’s quite interesting to see the constrasting perception of reality – compare yourself (the Guardian has more quotes):

La Repubblica (left-leaning) Editorial

“As Silvio Berlusconi drifts tragically further each day, yesterday he crashed into Europe, propelled by his lack of culture, his bravura that is so popular in Italy, flexing his muscles, for lack of competence, and incapable of responding to accusations over his howling conflict of interests. … Yesterday can be considered the official date of the beginning of the decline of Il Cavaliere. But also, the result is extremely bitter for our country, which is paying an unjust and disproportionate price for Berlusconi’s errors and personality.”

La Stampa(centre) Editorial

“A joke can ruin everything. He should not have opened the way for endless poisonous polemics with a joke that was so twisted in its irony that it was incomprehensible.”

And now, the Berlusconi Press…

Il Giornale (owned by Berlusconi family) Editorial

“Berlusconi did well to react to the insolent man who insulted him, the Italian government, its ministers, and all of us. He did excellently, in his own way, with his own style and in his own time.”

Libero (owned by former editor of Il Giornale) Editorial

“Berlusconi should not give in to the pressures that will surely come in the coming hours. Maybe Schulz is not a Kapo (concentration camp guard), but he is a villain. And villains deserve not only irony but contempt.”

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German Politics, oddly enough

From Bad To Worse?

In a press conference after yesterday’s Parliamentary session, MEP Martin Schulz told the press that he had been told that Mr Berlusconi had allegedly instructed his television channels to ignore his insulting remarks.

I don’t if that is true, I haven’t heard any other source in relation to this matter. Personally, I doubt it. I doubt that someone with Berlusconi’s tactical abilities would be as stupid as not too understand that instructing his channels not to report about his Nazi slur would make a bad situation much, much worse.

But then again, history is full of ill-fated arrogance.

PS.: Among all the outrage about Berlusconi, The Independent mentions how Martin Schulz is likely going to benefit from his fifteen minuted of worldwide fame –

“For Martin Schulz, the MEP who drew the wrath of the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, yesterday was a political coup beyond his wildest dreams. For months Mr Schulz, a loyal supporter of Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor, has been campaigning unofficially to become the leader of the socialist group of MEPs after the next European elections (he is now vice-president). Little could stand him in better stead than to be attacked so publicly and crudely by Mr Berlusconi.”

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compulsory reading, German Politics, oddly enough

Schultz, and Schulz

Schultz, and Schulz

Maybe Silvio Berlusconi had an overdose of the 1960s American tv series “Hogan’s Heroes“, in which a stereotypically imbecile Tscherman POW camp guard named Hans Schultz (played by John Banner) is the prime target of allied humour. Maybe he is just bad with German surnames and somehow mixed up Schultz with Schulz while not actually trying to offend the vice chairman of the socialist Parliamentary group in the European Parliament, German MEP Martin Schulz, by saying – according to the Guardian –

“Mr Schulz, I know there is in Italy a man producing a film on the Nazi concentration camps. I would like to suggest you for the role of leader. You’d be perfect.”

Or maybe he did try to insult Mr Schulz. Mr Berlusconi was given the opportunity to retract his statement but refused to do so, even in light of MEPs shouting in the usually rather calm chamber. The row was caused by Mr Schulz wondering about the political effects of Mr Berlusconi’s media empire which, in conjunction with political control over RAI gives him a 80-90% share of mind in the Italian television market.

Welcome to Berlusconia.

I suppose a lot of people expected some sort of scandal along the way, but few will have expected it already on day two of the current six-month Italian Presidency of the European Union. One really has to wonder why he lost himself like this – he may be in control of televised opinion and the parliamentary majority in Italy and this may keep him from being criminally punished for the stuff he did to become what he became – but Europe is a different ballgame. The unique, and admittedly questionable, Italian balance of power, should have prompted him to keep as low a profile on the European stage as possible and silently manage affairs in a way that would somehow placate critics.

His presidency would have been severely scrutinized anyway – and rightly so – but following this start, he will either be forced to stay under deck entirely or face vocal critisicm every time he will open his mouth. Either way, his presidency will be ineffetive.

Mr Schulz’ reaction following today’s incident is probably an accurate reflection of many MEPs’ opinion – (quote according to the Guardian)

“My respect for the victims of fascism will not permit me to deal with that kind of claim at all … It is very difficult for me to accept that a council president [Mr Berlusconi] should be exercising this office at all when he comes out with this kind of statement.”

Well, we know he will. It’s bad timing, sure. But while he can’t do much damage to the EU, the amount of criticism he is likely to face in the coming months is likely going to strain his stand in Italy, too.

So maybe, one day, we will be able to say that, first, he lost his cool…

Update: Spiegel online reports that Berlusconi, speaking to the conservative Parliamentary party at the EP, stated that he was sorry “in case he had hurt the feelings of the German people.”

Update: Henry Farell thinks Berlusconi could have given the EP the opportunity to stage an institutional power struggle –

“It’s also leading to a test of strength between the institutions of the EU. The President of the Socialist party in the Parliament, who is coincidentally Italian, is painting this as a grave crisis in Parliament-Council relations, saying that Berlusconi needs to issue a formal apology to the Parliament on behalf of the Council. If the Parliament gets this formal apology (don’t hold your breath), it’ll be a major precedent – the Parliament will have succeeded in holding the Council accountable for its actions – just like a normal Parliament does. Even if the Parliament doesn’t get its way, it will very likely try to push this as far as it can. The Parliament’s current President, Pat Cox, is the same guy who engineered the en-masse resignation of the European Commission some years back, when he was head of the European Liberals. Cox knows how to use political crises to augment Parliament’s powers.”

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Economics, German Politics, oddly enough

Too cocky indeed.

Just two links to articles in today’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung in this post. But since they are about Mr Cocky mentioned in the previous post I decided to put them here.

In the first article, Juergen Peters is described as failed missionary, while the second reports that some people in his union want to see his head on the block after IG Metall’s historic defeat.

You can tell the extent to which the climate in Germany has changed when the metal employer association’s chairman, Martin Kannegiesser, sees it fit to state that “breaking the unions’ neck” would be stupid (just like the chancellor did yesterday, not without displaying a certain smugness). Boy, they do enjoy their victory… :)

Let’s just hope that they won’t get too cocky now and remember that even wounded animals can still be quite dangerous…

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compulsory reading, Economics, German Politics, oddly enough

Strange Happenings…

Now at least the universe loves us ;-). From sixsixfive via Le Sofa Blogger…

The Heal West Germans man

Entirely unrelated – the desk-cleaning action did take longer than expected, so I won’t be able to comment in lenght on this weekend’s exciting developments in German politics. The proposed accelrated tax break is quite remarkable in itself, as is the CDU’s refusal to do some serious subsidy removal business. Sure, the government will primarily target the oppposition’s target groups when proposing cuts – but why wouldn’t the CDU use this as a starting point to talk about cutting SPD-treasured subsidies as well, so that a substancial cut in subsidies would be the all-party compromise, instead of blocking change at all? This is clearly not going to help them electorally, but they may need some more time to figure this out.

As for the IG Metall’s ending the Summer Of Discontent, aka the most pointless metalworker strike ever, Papascott and Eamonn Fitzgerald have some coverage. To add something they can’t tell you…

When I was in Prague two weeks ago, I had un coup de rouge in a rather hidden little garden restaurant close to the Charles bridge where – at the table behind me – a group of German trade unionists was having a ball – drinking Moravian red and smoking cigars while discussing how to handle the strike and the press. At some point, one of the men at the table laughingly told the group that BMW had allegedly complained to the chancellor about the economic sideeffects of IG Metall’s strike…

When I shyly turned my head to look at the table behind me, I am almost certain I saw the profile of Juegen Peters, chairman to be of IG Metall, and now held responsible for the disaster by most commentators, laughing and zipping on his cigar – a scene slightlyreminiscent of those caricatures of cigar smoking capitalists.

Pulling off an unreasonable strike in the worst possible economic climate was probably intended to boost his – already agreed on – election as chairman in November this year. I suppose he wanted to demonstrate that the union does still have the power to go all the way.

Well, it looks like he might have smoked that cigar a little too early, like he was a little too cocky. But let’s face it – his mistake does have positive side effects – now everybody has understood that this time, change is for real – that is, maybe apart from the CDU. But they will get there eventually.

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German Politics

Unintended Consequences.

The investigation against a Ukrainian criminal women trafficing organisation that has also led to cocaine possession charges against the tv talk show host and vice chaiman of the Central Council of Jews in Germany is having a positive side effects. Just as Mr Friedman’s home was raided and searched for cocaine because he had talked to call-girl-ring pimps whose phones were monitored by police, some German Parlamentarians seem to have become involved in this investigation.

Prostitution (but not pimpimp) is entirely legal in Germany so they could not be charged for indulging in sexual favours of East European women, but, well – for all our old European decadent open-mindedness – paying for sexual services is still something at least most public figures will certainly never talk about freely (But then again, there are public figures who used their party-paid-for airline miles for personal trips to Bangkok…)

So now German MPs are seriously annoyed about the simplicity with which “third parties” to an investigation can become dragged into a criminal prosecution and possibly have to bear the negative consequences of publicity, an argument made for ages by just about every privacy advocate with a public voice, including Green MP Christian Stroebele.

While I usually don’t agree with his loony-left arguments, I hope he is right when he says that (according to Spiegel Online) personal vulnerability could help MPs from all parties to rebalance privacy and security arguments.

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German Politics, Iraq, US Politics

The Next Tirpitz?

Ha – I knew it. My gentle readers, I am going to tell you a little secret.

On last new years eve I bet a young German Navy officer for six bottles of Champagne that, in ten years, Germany would have at least ordered a brand new Aircraft carrier… and today – according to Spiegel Online – Roland Koch, the premier of the German state of Hessen and friend of George W. and eternal conservative hopeful in the CDU took advantage of a day trip to the coast to explain that, well, the changed requirements of military interventions might very well include ordering an Aircraft Carrier…

Don’t worry, Roland Koch is not quite the next Tirpitz. This is, above all, funny – for the time being. But yes, the Navy brass will vote CDU next time… ;).

And for the real deal, Harvard’s Andrew Moravcsik shares his thoughts about “Striking a New Transatlantic Bargain” (full text requires subscription) in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, entitled “After Saddam”.

Here’s Moravcsik’s brief sketch of the current transatlantic reality –

“The Iraq crisis offers two basic lessons. The first, for Europeans, is that American hawks were right. Unilateral intervention to coerce regime change can be a cost-effective way to deal with rogue states. In military matters, there is only one superpower — the United States — and it can go it alone if it has to. It is time to accept this fact and move on.

The second lesson, for Americans, is that moderate skeptics on both sides of the Atlantic were also right. Winning a peace is much harder than winning a war. Intervention is cheap in the short run but expensive in the long run. And when it comes to the essential instruments for avoiding chaos or quagmire once the fighting stops — trade, aid, peacekeeping, international monitoring, and multilateral legitimacy — Europe remains indispensable. In this respect, the unipolar world turns out to be bipolar after all.

Given these truths, it is now time to work out a new transatlantic bargain, one that redirects complementary military and civilian instruments toward common ends and new security threats. Without such a deal, danger exists that Europeans — who were rolled over in the run-up to the war, frozen out by unilateral U.S. nation building, disparaged by triumphalist American pundits and politicians, and who lack sufficiently unified regional institutions — will keep their distance and leave the United States to its own devices. Although understandable, this reaction would be a recipe for disaster, since the United States lacks both the will and the institutional capacity to follow up its military triumphs properly — as the initial haphazard efforts at Iraqi reconstruction demonstrate.

To get things back on track, both in Iraq and elsewhere, Washington must shift course and accept multilateral conditions for intervention. The Europeans, meanwhile, must shed their resentment of American power and be prepared to pick up much of the burden of conflict prevention and postconflict engagement. Complementarity, not conflict, should be the transatlantic watchword.

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